HI Mike,
There really is no set rule for estimating material costs on manufactured goods short of making samples. Normally what’s done is the factory is given the prototype and uses it to dial in the production, material, and decorating costs. What they give back to you is an all-inclusive number representing the “Manufactured cost”.
In this number are the materials, the labor, the decorating costs, the tooling or mold costs spread across the number of manufactured units, the packaging costs, and the ship pack costs.
Hope this helps….